So we start with a base prediction of 31-28 Saints based on overall team
abilities. How do other factors influence our view about whether the teams
will play better or worse than their “full season estimates?” Here is my gut
Freeney’s injury will really hurt. I know of no mathematical way
to quantify the effect of his injury, but my gut says this injury makes the
Saints offense 3 points better.
The Saints feast on turnovers. A turnover costs a team around 4 points. Counting the playoffs, the Saints have around a 1 turnover edge per game. I believe (and I guess the betting public does also) that Manning's great ability will neutralize the Saints usual turnover edge. Maybe this costs the Saints 4 points. (say 2 on offense and defense).
With these adjustments I predict Saints 32 Colts 30.
Monday, February 1, 2010
The stats don't lie [SPOILER ALERT]
Kelley Professor and Mathletics author Wayne Winston may be a Colts fan, but he's also an expert in statistics and spreadsheet modeling. And his analysis of the Superbowl game favors the Saints over the Colts.
From his blog, http://waynewinston.com/, here are Wayne's projections: